More Jamaicans also believe the PNP would do a better job of governing the country at this time but, again, the JLP's tide is rising ominously.
The JLP has made big moves in the latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll, while the PNP has lost support or remained stable.
The latest poll, conducted islandwide from May 28 to 29 and June 4 to 5, shows that 35 per cent of Jamaicans would vote for the PNP candidate if an election is called today, while 25 per cent would vote for the JLP candidate, regardless of who is nominated to represent the two parties.
Eleven per cent of the respondents said they were undecided, while 27 per cent said they would not vote.
However, despite trailing the PNP by 10 percentage points, the poll provides encouraging news for the JLP, which is enjoying an upswing, while the PNP has lost some ground.
When Johnson last tested the pulse of the nation in April 2010, the PNP with 38 per cent support had doubled the JLP, which had only 19 per cent of the respondents, saying they would vote for the candidates of the governing party.
But in this latest poll, with a sample size of 1,008 and a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent, the PNP has lost three percentage points while the JLP has gained six percentage points.
"This is one case where a political party cannot be sanguine with a 10-point lead," Johnson explained.
"The JLP has cut the PNP's 19 per cent lead in almost half in one year and it could be tough for the PNP unless it start giving people a reason to vote for its candidates," added Johnson.
The pollster noted that the story was similar when respondents were asked which party would do a better job of governing Jamaica at this time.
Forty-three per cent of Jamaicans said the PNP would do a better job in managing the affairs of the state at this time while 32 per cent made the JLP their choice.
But even as the Portia Simpson Miller-led PNP continues to enjoy the lead that it has held since June 2008, that poll also showed encouraging signs for the JLP.
When Johnson posed the same question to Jamaicans just over one year ago, the PNP polled 43 per cent, while the JLP, with 26 per cent, was at its lowest level since 2007 and 17 percentage points behind Simpson Miller and her team.
Now one year later, the PNP has not moved and the JLP has gained six percentage points, closing that gap to 11 percentage points.
Even more encouraging for the JLP is the fact that its upswing has come from persons who were undecided about which party would do a better job of running the country.
Last April, 30 per cent of those polled declared that they were undecided about which party would be better at directing the affairs of the state. That number is now down to 25 which is about consistent with the polling numbers for non-election years and two of the island's leading political analysts believe it spells bad news for the PNP.
Troy Caine and Tony Myers agree that the signs are moving in the right direction for the JLP.
"The PNP doesn't have a lot of things going in its favour as it approaches the next general election," Caine told The Gleaner.
"The PNP was pushing for something to go in its favour from the Manatt-Dudus commission of enquiry and that did not work. Now, it is looking for other so-called scandals to try to discredit the JLP," Caine added.
He charged that the PNP has not made efforts to woo voters. Instead, it has sat expecting Jamaicans to boot out the Bruce Golding-led government.
That view is shared by Myers who is unimpressed by the actions of the PNP's Secretariat.
"The PNP seems to be saying that the people will get rid of the JLP rather than telling the country how the party would deal with issues such as crime and the economy. The leadership of the PNP needs to wake up," Myers said.
"The poll numbers have a lot to do with the lack of readiness of the PNP and the lack of inspiration of its Secretariat which is at a new low, below the floor," Myers added.
According to Caine: "The main problem that the PNP has why it is not gaining is that it is the same old team with the same old story and Simpson Miller's lame attempt at a recent reshuffle of her shadow Cabinet has found no favour with Jamaicans."
With elections constitutionally due next year, the PNP still has time to get back into gear but with the poll showing the momentum with the JLP, it will be hard work for the Opposition to change the status quo.
But Caine does not believe that is impossible.
"I do not hold much candle for the polls. Elections are all won at the constituency level and not on national issues."
If election were held today, which party would you probably vote for?
May 2011
April 2010
JLP
25%
19%
PNP
35%
38%
Undecided
11%
10%
Would not vote
27%
32%
Refused
2%
2%
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